British National Party leader Nick Griffin MEP was put on trial in 2006 for amongst other things predicting that home-grown Islamist extremists would commit acts of terror in Britain – and now one of the country’s leading think tanks has confirmed that view as correct.

The BNP has long argued that mass Third World immigration has created a huge pool of Muslims in Britain from which radicals can recruit. Now Professor Michael Clarke from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has warned that the police and MI5 “must brace themselves to counter a new generation of violent Islamic terrorists.”

In a paper released by RUSI entitled ‘Terrorism in the United Kingdom: Confirming its Modus Operandi,’ Professor Clarke said that home-grown jihadists intent on murdering others in high-profile outrages “will not wither away in the near future: it is likely to be generational. All the available evidence is that radicalisation of alienated Muslim youth in the UK can take place very rapidly as long as it is based somewhere on personal contact.”

Charting a number of significant terrorist plots since 2001, the paper analyses the ‘resolutely amateur’ tradecraft of UK jihadists, and concludes Al-Qa’ida ‘core’ is having less direct involvement in terrorist planning after increased NATO operations in Afghanistan, and the wave of arrests across Europe following the 2004 Madrid and 2005 London bombings.

“What security services may now be combating is more home-grown plotting with less direct Al-Qa’ida core planning since 2006, but still a good deal of inspiration from the camps in the lawless areas of Pakistan,” the paper said.

According to the paper, “face to face communication is very prevalent, not least because UK cells are chiefly self-help groups and act both as recruiters as well as planners.”

“For cells consisting of radicalised amateurs, constant social reinforcement is necessary, which also helps explain their predilection for outward bound training, even paint-balling sessions, which draws attention to their connections with each other and usually appears risible when used as prosecution evidence against them. Most of the plotters have left a trail of forensics behind that has led some police professionals to predict that this will seem like a golden age of counter-terrorism – when we were both successful and lucky.

“The tradecraft of UK jihadi terrorists is extremely variable. For the movement as a whole this is not a problem. Amateurs are as dangerous as professionals if they are lucky, and if there are enough amateurs plotting, some of them will be lucky. Those who are not keep the security services stretched and public anxieties high.”

While acknowledging that the security services should be ‘proud’ of their counter-terrorism efforts since the July 2005 London bombings – with around 90 convictions – the paper warns an evolution in the recruitment and techniques of terrorist cells is “entirely possible” as they learn from previous mistakes.

“Though it is theoretically possible to learn how to make a bomb from the Internet alone, it is generally regarded as not feasible unless there is some tangible training and /or knowledge of chemical handling among the bomb-makers,” Professor Clarke continued.

“The difficulties of making these devices work have prevented an unknown number of deaths and injuries in recent years. This may not always be the case and an evolution in the recruitment and techniques of terrorist cells in the UK is entirely possible. The 90-odd convictions, of which the security services can be proud, will have their own longer-term consequences for which the government must be prepared.”

He added that prisons around the world are “universities of terror and there is no reason to believe that the UK’s will not be the same.”

The security services are currently aware of around 200 potential terrorist networks that involve Britain and are actively interested in somewhere around 2,000 individuals with an unknown number of others whom they cannot identify.

* The Royal United Services Institute is an independent think tank engaged in cutting edge defence and security research. It was founded in 1831 by the Duke of Wellington and describes itself as embodying “nearly two centuries of forward thinking, free discussion and careful reflection on defence and security matters.”

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For centuries, violent Muslims have been trying to capture Europe for Islam. Sweeping out from its origin in Saudi Arabia, Islam has expanded through violent conquest into North Africa, the Middle and Near East, and very nearly into Europe itself, attacking through Spain, Italy, and the Balkans. Each time, the Islamic hordes were turned back by a united European military effort.

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Given current trends, Europe is set to be overrun before the end of this century.

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