The BNP was Right About Peak Oil

 Oil at $100 per barrel; predictions of price rises to $115 per barrel by the Spring; serious shortages of aviation fuel; mainstream oil industry commentators openly discussing the increasingly unavoidable geological constraints on production - Peak Oil is moving from disputed theory to accepted (though still downplayed) fact.

So as ‘mainstream’ politicians begin to discover, if not yet to understand, PeakOil, it’s a very timely moment to take an in-depth look at the conclusions of a joint BNP/oil expert Peak Oil conference. This was held on 11th - 12th Sept 2006, clear evidence that - as is so often the case - the British National Party was way ahead of the game.

The conference began with a detailed briefing on the problem. Readers very familiar with the truly frightening facts may prefer to skip this recap and to move on to the unique Peak Oil preparation equation that our conference team developed:

PEAKOIL POINTERS

There has been zero growth in world production of conventional oil in the last six years, despite a staggering 600% increase in oil costs. The finds that are being made are mainly condensates (Chevron’s much vaunted ‘deep oil’ finds in the Gulf of Mexico, for example, are these hot greasy gases rather than conventional oil), heavy oils, etc.

Energy returns vary massively with different kinds of oil. With conventional oil producers invest 5 barrels in to get 100. Deeper offshore the ratio falls to 20 in for 80 out. Really deep, heavy oil, etc 40 in to get 60 back.

One barrel of tar sand oil takes half a barrel of gas and 40 gallons of water to produce. After decades of work and investment in the Canadian tar sands industry, output is still only 1.2million bpd. The Chinese are producing 500,000 bpd in Venezuela.

The world’s three biggest fields - in Saudi, Kuwait, Mexico - are all in decline. Matthew Simmonds’ “Twilight in the Desert” is the best summary of this state of affairs. The Policypete website in Washington DC is also good. The Burgan field is Kuwait. If we backtrack to the real reserve figures of 1980 (before OPEC reserve/production ratio rules created a huge fictional increase in reserves,) they are at peak. The position is similar throughout the Middle East.

An internal Exxon publication shows the company loses 2.5 million bpd at present from depletion, and warns that is set to worsen. Many countries are suffering from this problem, particularly those which took the decision to extract as much oil as possible in the shortest time. Thus, while the USA depletion is on average 6% per year, the rate in Britain’s North Sea fields is 9 - 11% per year.

THE HIDDEN ECO-CATASTROPHE

While on the subject of the North Sea, our expert briefed us that long-term oil pollution from sub-sea leakage is 180,000 bpd in North Sea. The industry practice of pumping sea water into oil wells to force production leads to the circulation of vast amounts of oily water. Because oil is heavy and the sea is cold, most of the oil stays on the sea floor. This is the key reason for the decline of fisheries in the waters of Britain, Norway and Denmark.   

Two percent of world production — 2.25 million bpd, is lost - as much as the entire UK uses. This criminal waste occurs in a mixture of ways, including burning off gas flares, which are full of condensates which fall back into water. This is an ecocatastrophe, but because there are no pictures of fluffy creatures dying in oil, it is unseen, not newsworthy, gradual and permanent.

PRODUCTION AND USE

Fifty percent of all energy is used for heating and 45% for transport. World demand always follows a pattern with spikes in summer and winter and dips between. Quantities used change between 5 - 10%, and this used to be met by increasing production. Prices are now tending to track demand because there is no increase in supply. If the price rises in the autumn and spring to match the renewed demand rises for heating and driving, we’re at Peak.

China and India are so productive/profitable that they can take higher prices better than US and Europe without suffering as much economic pain. They have huge trade/currency surpluses, and are using growing amounts of oil, though still far less than America (7 times.) China uses oil to produce, we and USA use it to consume (and keep warm).

The barrels per capita per year used in different parts of the world vary enormously. Thus, while the world’s poor will be badly hit by things such as rising agricultural prices, the industrialised nations will also suffer badly, even in early Peak. Barrels per capita per year figures are US 16; South Korea 16; Japan 14; EU 12 (UK 12.3); Turkey 6; China 2.5; India 1.5.

The world average is about 4.8 barrels per capita/year. To bring someone from a 0.5 bpcy country in Africa to the West is to create huge extra demand — thus mass immigration contributes directly to worsening the local and global impact of Peak.

PEAK OIL = PEAK FOOD

In the EU, an average 1 gram of protein takes 1 gram of diesel to create.

In the EU, a 100 ha holding uses 70,000 litres of diesel per year.

PEAK OIL 2007

PEAK GAS 2015

PEAK COAL 2044?

The gas depletion rate is very rapid at the end of its production rise - so, British Government policy of using liquid national gas as a saviour is nothing short of crazy, as the massive infrastructure costs are sure to be written off within twenty years.

FUTURE SCENARIOS

Religious wars are out of time and place. One in the Middle East would be potentially catastrophic. We cannot even count on maximised production - thus Peak Oil threatens not just our economy but our entire civilisation.

SOLUTIONS

There is no one solution, only a series of measures which can be taken to reduce the problems caused by Peak Oil and to find some silver linings in the cloud. We decided to represent our conclusions in an equation:

P = population

Ins = Insecurity of energy supply 

ei = energy intensity of GDP

M = money intensity of material standard of living

S = Sustainability of energy supply

Thus:

Vulnerability to peak oil problem = (P x  Ins x ei x M) 

                                                                             S

POPULATION

We are over-crowded. Without immigration the UK population will decrease naturally. As in so much of Europe, what - combined with mass immigration - appears to be a demographic and cultural disaster, could if handled properly, be a huge help facing and surviving Peak Oil.

i) Reduce by shutting the door.

ii) Shifting undesirables and encouraging non-productive foreigners to go home.

iii) Allow population to decrease naturally.

A recent House of Lords Commission concluded that an ageing population is not a threat to our society, because:

a) The retired are not supported by the working population, but by the productivity of the working population. Productivity is the variable we need to address to deal with this problem. Industrial automation a la Japan is more important than classic robots;

b) The burden is not old and not working, but rather everyone who is not working, irrespective of age. A declining population with fewer young people also saves on costs of education, etc.

c) It would allow us to abandon things which are socially bad, e.g. tower block housing.

INSECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLY

We are vulnerable to accidental or political disruption of supply. The cure is diversification, which gives you ability to walk away and go elsewhere for your energy supplies. This can be a successful bargaining tool.

We need to:

a) produce more energy at home;

b) produce more energy from a wide variety of sources. Part of the value of small scale energy saving measures is its influence and educative effect. ‘Dig for Victory’ causes as much psychological unity among the population as it has real physical impact. The “Feed In Tariffs” used in Germany, gave a huge boost to the uptake of household wind and solar generation, and have contributed significantly to the development of future strategic hard industries;

c) diversify foreign sources, including non-sustainable ones for now;

d) increase reserves;

e) have an emergency plan.

ENERGY INTENSITY OF GDP

Market mechanisms are helpful. See for example, the better record of European states compared with the USA. It is essential that carrots are used as well as sticks, and that taxes are raised to discourage inefficient energy use. Failure to do this will massively increase the risk of the public falling for cynical populist political responses involving putting heads in the sand, or offers of painless solutions. (We noted that localisation is not always energy efficient, e.g. if an inefficient plant is used.)

We need to

a) use the tax system to flatten post-Peak price volatility so as to encourage long-termism in investment;

b) encourage more efficient use of energy used at present, especially in the transport, housing and public works, and food sectors - the largest consumers. We need to look for sectors with current high intensity and potential for substitution, with a minimum of economic and social stress;

c) reform the transport system. We need to:

-  introduce a feebate system on new cars;

- reduce the need to use fossil fuels to travel, for example by the use of dual battery/induction cars; an increase in investment in public transport; the retrofitting of suitable cities to reduce dependency on the internal combustion engine; and a tax on aviation fuel to fund more local tourist projects;

- abolish road tax and cut income tax, and introduce time flexible road pricing, working with cash or anonymous “credit card” payments (such as off the counter cards like those used for payphones, which can be used without any Big Brother ramifications,) including freight tax;

-  introduce a French-style car/train system, followed by motorway. Viable alternative methods of transport must first be created before the public is punitively discouraged from using their own vehicles. The carrot must be on offer before the stick is produced.

 d) reform all housing and public works. Insulation and cheap alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power must be introduced, varying according to circumstance, for individual houses, flats, towers, etc. Rain water should be used for toilet use, and there needs to be strict regulations on new builds, with planning permission to be conditional on major energy efficiency improvements. There also needs to be multi-functional district energy centres, with waste recycling, digesters, and local power production. This can take the form of combined heat and power plants. Eco housing replacement programmes must replace the worst public housing, and others need to be retrofitted.

e) engage in a wide revision of the food production sector. This must include extensive organic production; local forestation (including small areas); permaculture; traditional/local/seasonal food encouragement in schools and restaurants; the progressive transition from industrial soil mining agribusiness; factory farming, (including inshore fish farms, which require huge oil-based chemical treatments to deal with pollution and disease problems), should be abolished. In this regard, sustainable offshore fish farming - linking to Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, and possibly linked with offshore wind/wave/current power extraction, should be intensively researched;

SUSTAINABILITY OF SUPPLY

We need to reduce dependence on finite carbon reserves and shift to renewables and high-tech non-carbon sources. A long-termist approach is needed, as is cheap capital, which is the key to encouraging capitalist companies to invest in solutions.

This will entail:

a) a diversification of supplies;

b) the use remaining oil as feedstock for plastics, etc - they use relatively little;

c) a system whereby the pollutor pays;

d) a declared aim to tax carbon use simply - at ports and power stations. (The conference gave careful consideration to an individual carbon credit trading system but concluded this would be a bureaucratic nightmare and is primarily an ideologically motivated response from the left to use the Peak Oil crisis as an excuse to introduce measures favoured for other reasons);

e) dealing with problem of high impact on poor by tweaking tax system - net consumption tax would both allow this and encourage savings/investment.

f) the utilisation of the many oceanic islands still remaining in British hands (as a last vestige of our Imperial past) as multiple use platforms, e.g. power plant heat and C02 used for algae.

g) the creation of forward thinking strategic industries based on deliberately cultivated technological leads in promising fields of alternative energy production. We concluded that new ultra-safe Molten Salt nuclear reactors should be built, but that is essentially bridging technology prior to the next generation of completely renewable energy sources (such as solar panels in orbit etc.)

MONEY INTENSITY OF MATERIAL STANDARD OF LIVING

Money is not everything. A post-Peak, nationalist government needs to break the obsession with GNP, nationally and individually - happiness is not based on income. Things we buy for cash now that shouldn’t have to be bought include:

a) living in a town that doesn’t look like a concrete desert;

b) security/safety

c) decent education;

d) good fresh food;

e) non-essential transport;

f) access to quality leisure - sustainable tourism.

We need to re-use and ‘green’ obsolete city buildings; introduce LETS and local currencies; strengthen local communities to increase personal involvement to reduce alienation and crime.

The transition from perpetual growth to a broadly steady state post-Peak economy cannot be other than costly in every sense. But while a shirked, botched, short-termist, or too late solution, could spell civilisational catastrophe, a well-handled change-over can create a less stressful, genuinely better way of life.